Scapegoat

It's not that often that I find myself applauding the BCTF leadership, but they appear to have nailed it this time.

I'm grateful. We should probably all be.

Thing is, there's really no question teachers have a persuasive case for better salaries and benefits. There's also no real question, in a Canadian context, that the K-12 education system deserves more resources and more reasonable class sizes. But these issues are not going to be solved any time soon given our government, its obligations, the economic mess it has managed to create, and, probably most importantly, its priorities.

So if class size, class composition, salaries, and benefits are off the table, at least not doing all the annoying administrative things that chew into teaching, or preparation and marking time, is something. I suspect teachers could go on not doing those chores forever if necessary, especially as not doing most Ministry-mandated paperwork has no appreciable effect on their students.

Unfortunately, I can't see this standoff lasting.

I think the Christy Clark gang is just itching to provoke an election issue. They have two by-elections coming up, both in safe BCLiberal seats, both of which they could easily lose. A couple more defections from their caucus, a bit more negative economic news, a bump in the rate of unemployment, and Christy is likely to be even lower in the polls than her predecessor was when he quit.

This does not even mention the series of intractable public-sector contracts coming up, including both nurses and doctors, before the next provincial election scheduled for May of 2013.

So I think they'll try to go this spring, even though Christy promised they wouldn't.

Which means they're going to need a scapegoat.

And look! There's the BCTF, the chosen target for that fall election which went off the rails with the HST defeat, already lined up!

Anyway, I'm expecting to hear our Minister of Education, the affable George Abbott, who has the happy facility of making even a defence of the indefensible seem somewhat reasoned, tell us, early in the new year, that the BCTF has to be brought to heel for the sake of the children. He'll then introduce legislation to both affirm the present regime of class size and composition regulations and to impose a wage-freeze contract on teachers.

It would be a pleasant surprise if the BCTF leadership would, at this provocation, counsel patience, let the NDP caucus carry the political load, encourage teachers to just carry on as before, and wait for the inevitable election call.

Then motivate the membership to put some real, partisan effort into fighting the BCLiberals.

Well, I can dream. Right?

letter to editor

Dear Sir,

Twenty years from now the few jobs created by expanding Quinsam Coal will be long-forgotten. If there are any jobs on that site then, they will be for remediation, and paid for by taxpayers.

Rising ocean levels, caused largely by coal-fired plants, will obsess planners in Richmond, Delta, and low-lying parts of Vancouver.

The famous pink run on the Quinsam River will be a nostalgic memory.

And I'll be one of those annoying old farts who writes letters to the Editor saying, "I told you so!"


printed in the Courier-Islander of August 24, 2011

The trees are dying

A couple of months ago, while Eli and I were walking along the Piggott Main, I noticed that most of the alders were turning, as if it were autumn. As they had only just acquired their leaves, and as this year has seen one of the wettest, coolest springs any of us can remember, it wasn't long before the obvious explanation presented itself: herbicides.
Then a few weeks ago, now on on the Brown's River Main, we encountered first the notice, then a crew of about eight young men from Blackfish Silviculture of Campbell River, decked out in rain gear on one of the warmer, sunnier days we'd had till then.
Their job did not appear to be making them very happy; on the other hand, it was time for lunch, and Eli was a diversion.

"Do you know the name of the herbicide?" I asked. "Because it's amazing how only the alder, maple, and cottonwood appear to be affected. Even the salmonberries growing right in close to the trees seem fine."
"I wouldn't eat the berries, though," ventured one.
"I think it might be "RTU", said another. That's what it says on the container."
(Turns out, "RTU" means "Ready to Use". I googled it. And the herbicides are listed on the notice.)

Today, in the BC section of the Globe  and Mail, there's an article by Mark Hume. It discusses the potential downside of this program, and how it probably doesn't actually boost the growth of the conifers. Which is, after all, why it's done at all.

It's in no one's interest to lessen employment opportunities for college and university students, but I'm surprised that Timberwest is still paying to have alder and maple removed from their replanted blocks, given what the research cited by Hume says: But Suzanne Simard, a Forest Science professor at the University of B.C., says the practice is misguided. Her research has found that conifer forests don’t do better when the broadleaf plants are killed off...“I was looking at it to see whether or not applying these herbicides actually achieved the goals the foresters were setting out to achieve … which was to improve the growth of crop conifers. And I found that, generally, it’s not that effective,” she said.

It's also hard to see why Hume's conclusion doesn't appear to be the prevailing ethos: Now it turns out that it [eradicating broadleaf plants] doesn’t help the conifers grow – which means the frogs, bees and other forest species are being put at risk needlessly.

email to Mike

I was just ...writing a post for my blog about why I had just sent my vote to keep the HST out in the mail, when this article appeared in The Tyee:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/06/29/LoveTheHST/

Exactly.

--Justus

Still REALLY hate the government's spin machine half-truths and lies on the topic, am outraged by the use of public money to effect that spin, and was so offended by those sanctimonious "Smart Tax Alliance" ads that I nearly changed my mind.

Christie's karma

Apparently Premier Clark jinxed the Vancouver Canucks' chances of winning the Stanley Cup by prematurely lighting the Olympic flame.
There's a mistake she won't be repeating any time soon.

With that kind of karmic influence, consider what she could do for BC if her team stays under the radar long enough to win the next provincial election!

A brief Eli story

Eli and I were walking down the Brown's River Main. It was drizzling softly, no wind. The only sounds were the echo of my boots on gravel and the tinkle of the bear bell Eli wears when he's off-leash.
Suddenly, about a hundred meters ahead, a deer emerged from the woods, bounced across the road into the logging slash and along a slight ridge, then down, disappearing into the trees below.
Expecting Eli to be hot on the trail, I was surprised when instead he emerged from the pool at the side of the road where he'd been drinking, and continued ambling down the road.
Then he was abreast of where the deer had emerged. He suddenly stopped, sniffed, and shot off, following the deer's path along the ridge. He seemed to lose the scent, and I could see him circling until he'd picked it up again. He continued further down the hill, and then I lost sight of him as well.
So I continued down the road, knowing that Eli would catch up a few minutes later.
Which is what he did.

Raven Coal Mine Project

To: The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency

Re: “Compliance Coal Corporation, doing business as Comox Joint Venture (the Proponent), is proposing to develop the Raven Underground Coal Mine Project (the proposed Project) approximately 20 kilometres south of Courtenay on eastern Vancouver Island, in British Columbia (BC).”

Sirs:

Given what we know of the area, its environment, and the various impacts of coal extraction, it is astonishing that we should be even contemplating this “project”:

1. I am confident this project is not supported by the vast majority of residents of eastern Vancouver Island, and challenge anyone to prove otherwise.

2. The proposed extraction area drains into Baines Sound, an established and increasingly-famous shellfish-rearing area.  It is also at high risk of serious earthquake activity.
The metals and chemicals potentially released by coal extraction are extremely toxic to any form of marine life, but especially to shellfish. As the case of the Quinsam Coal mine in my area has demonstrated, even under rigorous management of water and waste some arsenic and other heavy metals will leech into local  water courses and find their way into fish-bearing streams. Of course, in the case of a serious earthquake it is almost inevitable that there will be a catastrophic release of very toxic chemicals and metals.
There will be a serious earthquake in this area; we just don't know when.

3. The extracted coal would be shipped overseas, probably to Korea. We would have no control over the environmental impacts of burning it. We do know the greenhouse gases produced would not be recovered. We also know, given what we know about prevailing winds, that northern Canada would receive much of the particulate pollution, adding to what is already a problem there.
The government of Canada apparently accepts that global climate change is a direct threat to humans. Why we would willingly add to the problem for so little gain is puzzling, to say the least.

4. The affected area is increasingly-important as a tourist magnet. As well, a number of large residential and recreational developments are in the planning stages. None of these projects would be compatible with a working coal mine.

5. The economic benefits to the area would be miniscule, especially considering the other economic interests that would be put at risk.

6. I conclude that this project makes no sense economically, socially, or environmentally. Therefore it makes no sense politically either.

Sincerely,

submitted to GlobeandMail

The Editor,
Dear Sir,

Your front-page pensions story, which suggests public sector defined-benefit pension plans may be headed for the same fate as many private-sector plans (it appears to this non-economist) misses an important point: my teachers' pension plan was fully paid for by me and my employer. It was part of my salary, and administered by an independent body, not my employer. My compulsory contributions were raised when the plan's actuaries determined that there were problems ahead, and when I retired my part of the plan was already fully-funded.

As I understand it, many private-sector pension plans, such as the Air Canada pilots' one cited, are administered by the company and are in trouble because the employer replaced actual investments with what were essentially promissary notes. Consequently, when such employers run into trouble, the pension plan is among the first things to go.

A simple law requiring all employers to put the money up front (or, better yet, increasing the contributions and payout of the Canada Pension Plan) would go a long way to solving this issue.

Horgan for BC

I've now seen John Horgan and Adrian Dix in person, have watched a number of the all-candidate debates on the BCNDP website, and have followed the campaign in the press avidly. Here's what I know so far:
1    All 5 candidates are excellent public speakers. All have a firm grasp of the issues and the politics. All are convincing when speaking extemporaneously. None speaks in "talking points".
Purely from that point of view any of them would present a more convincing public face of the BCNDP than our last leader.
I would judge John Horgan the most comfortable, the funniest, and the most loquatious.
2    Only three have a realistic chance: John Horgan, Adrian Dix, and Mike Farnworth. Nicholas Simons, while strong on social concerns, doesn't look or sound like a prospective Premier Simons. Dana Larsen, an unexpectedly effective and engaging candidate, cannot get a reference in the press that doesn't also reference his marijuana activism: not Premier material.
3    There is no evidence of a split in the party. All the leading candidates stayed with Carol James until the end; all the leading candidates have attracted and welcomed endorsements from dissident MLAs.
4    The campaign has been so civil that John Horgan is frequently quoted in the press when he characterizes the debates as "another NDP love-in". Some columnists would like to see fireworks, but most acknowledge that only very small differences separate the candidates. The candidates appear to genuinely like and respect each other. This is not normal for BC politics.
5    Of the front-runners, as must be pretty clear by now, I like John Horgan the best. He's not as well-known as the other two, but I think that would dissipate very quickly were he to become the voice of the NDP. I suspect he's the most able of the three to point out Premier Clark's foibles and weaknesses in a humorous way, and I think that's the way to beat her and her machine.
    My second choice has to be Mike Farnworth. He clearly has the confidence of large segments of the party, and according to polls, is the most liked by the electorate at large. I suspect his justice issues stance, which has been widely covered in the press over many years, is largely responsible for his good name recognition. Unfortunately I don't agree with this stance; fortunately he's solid on the other issues near and dear to me, especially on the environment.
    I've admired Adrian Dix for years, ever since he was the BC head of Canadian Parents for French. He's also obviously the best-organized of the candidates and has an uncanny ability to summon at will statistics for every occasion: it's quite dazzling. Unfortunately, I've seen no evidence of a sense of humour, and I do think that's an important political tool: I'm tired of our perpetual righteous indignation. We really haven't been amused by BC politics since Dave Barrett, who took down an iconic WAC Bennett by pointing out how ridiculous his platform was, given the problems the province was facing at the time.
    But the biggest problem with Adrian Dix is that he has baggage. Vaughan Palmer's column of January 19, 2011, laid out the case: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Opinion+Liberals+have+lots+common/4130156/story.html
I also wonder about the judgment of some of his supporters: Mable Elmore's activities in recruiting new NDP members on his behalf represented the one blot on the entire leadership process. Everything may have been perfectly above-board, but the new memberships looked fishy, and the press sensed blood.
    You cannot just shuck that kind of record, irrelevant as it may be to present circumstances, as Christy Clark and the BCLiberals (Christy's role in the BC Rail fiasco: look it up!) are going to find out eventually.

    So that's it: one of the least consequential political endorsements of all time!
    But all mine.

Update: regarding white elephants

In December 2009 I wrote letters to both our local papers. There was a proposal to a upgrade the Campbell River Airport, purportedly so it would attract larger aircraft. Federal money was involved; local taxpayers would have to pony up 'only' several hundred thousand dollars.
I pointed out that the Comox Airport, second in BC only to Vancouver International, is only 45 minutes away. I compared the airport project to our infamous cruise-ship terminal, which hasn't seen a cruise (or any other kind of) ship for several years.
No letters on this subject were published, fewer than 100 ratepayers complained, and the upgrade was completed last year. (One can find the letters archived on this blog.)
Yesterday Dan MacLennan, the Courier-Islander's principal reporter, had a story about Council's budget deliberations.
Oh look! We're paying $26,000 a year to maintain a cruise ship terminal that cannot attract cruise ships. Otherwise our $2 Million (of $20 Million!) investment will deteriorate.
Councillors were "surprised", and claimed that "George is working on it".
MacLennan also revealed, for the first time apparently, that the Campbell River Airport has lost money every year of at least the last five. In other words, since well before Councillors decided to expand it:

Meanwhile the Campbell River Airport, downloaded by Ottawa onto the city in 1996, has been losing money for several years. At the time, city officials pledged the airport would not be a burden to the taxpayers. It would have to stand on it's own.

Budget documents, however, show taxpayers are on the hook. 

- Passenger movements have been dropping from a spike in 2000 close to 80,000, down to about 50,000 in 2009
- Aircraft movements peaked in 2008 then dropped sharply in 2009. Fuel sales dropped with them.
- Airport expenses have exceeded revenues for the last five years.
- Airport operations lost $183,374 in 2010. The 2011 operational deficit is projected at $168,169.

Please! This "build it and they will come" mythology needs to be laid to rest.
Now, before it bankrupts us.

(published in Courier-Islander of April 8, 2011)

Don, Terry, and Ida

Don McRae, Terry Lake, and Ida Chong: what do they have in common?
Well, they're all MLAs, all BCLiberals, and all generally considered to be rather light-weight, in a caucus not usually recognized for intellectual heft.
They all had relatively small winning margins, and were or are the subjects of Recall campaigns. 
They are the only subjects of such campaigns, so far.
Since Christy became Premier, they're also all Ministers of the Crown, respectively Minister of Agriculture, Minister of the Environment, and Minister of Community, Sport, and Cultural Development. Only Ida has been a Minister before; however, googling reveals that she has never shown any particular talent.
Guess we now know where those portfolios rank in the current administration's esteem.
And what it takes to become a Minister in Christy's new, slimmed-down BCLiberal government.

UPDATE 23 March:  Two items of news: 1)  The Comox recall of MLA McRae was unsuccessful, gathering only about 5000 signatures. 19,000 were required. No surprise there.
                                                                   2)  There's another recall campaign underway: http://www.donewithdalton.com/  But, like the others, it won't succeed, even though the MLA for Maple Ridge-Mission, Marc Dalton, wasn't elevated to Christy's Cabinet, possibly because he holds views too odious even for most BCLiberals and isn't shy about expressing them.
Next election, people!

John Horgan, HST, and Recall

John Horgan wants to be the next leader of the BCNDP. Assuming his performance in front of a room of North Island NDPers yesterday was representative of his abilities and beliefs, I'd have no trouble voting for him.
Part of the unease I had with Carole as the visible face of the BCNDP was that, although she improved somewhat over the years, she was not a natural in front of an audience or the camera. When she did well, my first reaction was invariably relief. It's not a good if your partisans are always slightly worried when you have the stage.
Not so Horgan: he's extremely comfortable speaking extemporaneously and, perhaps more importantly,  has an ability, rare in public speakers, to make all the people in a room feel as if they're a part of a conversation among friends.
Of course he was among friends, and I haven't yet decided; it's still early days, and I haven't heard Mike Farnworth.

Someone asked him about taxation, and specifically the HST. As I'm still planning to vote in favour, I thought his reply interesting, especially given his audience, many of whom are quite sure the HST is an evil conspiracy. He said, of course he planned to vote against the HST in the upcoming referendum. However, he pointed out, consumption taxes aren't necessarily bad taxes. He mentioned visiting his son in Helsinki, where the consumption tax is over 20%, and pays in large part for the social services for which Finland is famous. The difference, he noted, is that the tax is built into the price of things, so there aren't constant irritating reminders.
That strikes me as a very reasonable, informed response. It appeared to go down well with the North Island audience as well, but he might want to consider ducking the issue if he's talking to his (judging from Facebook, many) partisans in Oak Bay, some of whom have invested literally months in the anti-HST cause.

Which is a nice segue into the Oak Bay Recall Campaign, which got only just over half of the signatures it needed before it timed out.
I think we dodged a bullet there, which is not to say no harm was done.
For one thing, look what it did for Ida's profile! (Who had ever heard of Ida Chong before this?)
And then there are the optics: her nice Asian lady face is all over the front pages today, having trashed the campaign against her led by an old, myopic white guy, also pictured.

Last week I was on the way to visit my dad when I saw a gaggle of elderly ladies and one gentleman flooding out of the Zocalo Cafe and Gallery on the corner of 5th and Cliffe, right in the middle of downtown Courtenay. They were turned out in yellow vests that said "RECALL". Although obviously embarking on the Comox Recall Campaign, they looked like a tour group of pensioners, out on an expedition.
You had to laugh.
There's no reason to think this campaign will be any more successful than the one in Oak Bay, even though there will be few provincial civil servants (who apparently refuse to sign because they're afraid!) or apartment dwellers (access is difficult) to complicate the task.
For reasons I've explored in a previous post, I'm with those who will not mourn the failure. I just wish the Comox NDP was not going to be tarred with it.
However, it will not help that the Zocalo Cafe is well-known in Courtenay as owned and operated by Catherine Bell, former NDP MP. And the recall Proponent plus (no doubt) many of the workers are prominent NDP partisans. Don McRae, a thoroughly-minor-league MLA (you may remember an earlier post that attributed his victory largely to the criteria by which the NDP candidate was chosen) will inevitably benefit from the publicity. I'm pretty sure he gains credibility and the NDP stands to lose.

That's two seats we'll have trouble winning back, I suspect..