Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Reflections on an historic election

I believe we may just have seen our first election result propelled largely by social media!

In 2005, the first provincial election our MLA, Claire Trevena, ran in and ultimately won, we appointed a “social media” young person, who apparently understood this wave of the future, to run that side of the campaign for our campaign team. She started out enthusiastically enough, but, although I was very involved in the nuts and bolts of that campaign, I didn't notice much effect. I do believe Claire had a Facebook account, and I believe it was updated regularly, although I could be wrong; that could easily have come later.
My imperfect memory recalls the next campaign being much the same.
In fact, it wasn't until the one in 2013 – the one we might have nearly lost for Claire –  that we got a glimpse of the power of Facebook and Twitter, although I certainly didn't recognize it at the time.
And I could be wrong: at the time I thought the whisper campaign that helped re-elect the thoroughly-discredited Clark BCLiberals (and nearly sank Claire in consequence) was the result of a sleaze campaign focused on local radio; now I think Facebook may have played a part.
However, I didn't have a Facebook account at the time, and, apart from our kids and their friends, I didn't know anyone who did.

Fact is, I totally misinterpreted the medium, and it wasn't until this election that I got it.
I'd heard politicians being advised, “You've got to be on Facebook and Twitter, and you have to post regularly. Encourage your constituents to follow you.” That appeared to be happening, but I didn't see much utility apart from being useful for keeping in touch with constituents. Just like the weekly emails our MLA sends out.

So this election was an eye-opener.
I started on Facebook last spring, mostly because I wanted a way to tell the occasional readers of this occasional blog when I had a new post up. Of course I quickly acquired a number of “friends”, initially all relatives, but later adding people I actually know in my daily life. Shortly after, the pre-election campaign started, and then the election. I quickly noticed that some people (notably friend and colleague Mike Hayes, doing his thing for Murray Rankin and the NDP, and former student, friend-of-the-family and fellow Campbell Riverite Jeremy Latham) had become almost full-time posters and commentators. Naturally, I joined them, because we don't all read the same stuff, and because I like spreading my opinions. (And because sometimes the people I know are idiots and need to be told so!) Political commentary, jokes, and ridicule soon flooded my inbox; the flood increased even as the too-lengthy campaign droned on. Knowing how this works, circles on circles, a Canada-wide venn diagram, I wasn't that surprised to find stuff originating from across Canada, in both official languages, from voters of all ages. I also wasn't surprised to see the ridicule and jokes, those most effective non-party messages, repeated over and over.
I don't think I received even one message from any politician or party that hadn't been paid for. In addition, the stuff that had been paid for was obviously advertising, and equally obviously about as effective as paid advertising usually is: no, I'm not tempted by Conservative ads about tax breaks and niqabs or pipeline advertising about oil. Furthermore, I'll bet the people who are, aren't on Facebook! Money wasted.
And then, while I was counting advance poll ballots, the results came in. I already knew, before we exited, that strategic voting was likely to be very hard on the Conservatives, and that, because the Thanksgiving Day advance polls showed a surge in Liberal votes we were probably looking at a Liberal government. It had already occurred to me (as people working in the same zone house as I can attest!) that a Liberal majority was a possibility. However, I was neither prepared for nor particularly disappointed by the size of the majority.
But on reflection, I could have seen it coming: Facebook was on it.


Two perspicacious columns that, as far as I am concerned, got it exactly right:
1. Chantal Hebert  in the Star:
Canada’s progressive majority got its act together on Monday and ushered Stephen Harper out with a vengeance.
In the process they brought their own resolution to the problem of vote splitting on the left of the Conservatives, steamrolling the NDP to hand Justin Trudeau the first Liberal majority victory in 15 years.


And 2. Thomas Homer-Dixon in the Globe:
As soon as the NDP poll numbers turned south in Quebec, the probability that the NDP would win enough seats to form the government dropped precipitously, given the importance of the NDP’s Quebec caucus to the party’s election hopes.
This was a signal to the ABH vote across the country to shift to the Liberals. ABH opinion leaders immediately recognized the implications of the Quebec developments; it took about another two weeks for those implications to be communicated through the ABH crowd and felt strongly in the polls, especially in Ontario. The Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau, helped the shift by performing well on the stump and in debates.


Thursday, October 8, 2015

Globe letter

How is spending $5.3 billion of our "hard-earned tax dollars" on paying off the dairy and auto industries to soften them up for accepting the TPP deal either good public policy or responsible stewardship of scarce resources?

--published in the Globe and Mail October 8, 2015

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Just in case you have any complaints about the Canadian medical system...

 
Our daughter, Enid, is married to Isaac, who is a scientist working in the enormous National Lab in Richland, Washington State. Through work Isaac has a very good --and very expensive, even with the subsidy -- medical plan, which covers Enid.
Enid and Isaac recently acquired a new baby, Louis Harree Arnquist, who is perfect in every way. 
But his birth is when his parents' encounters with the health bureaucracy began. 
Here's her rant on the subject:
 
1. On Louis' 32nd day of life, Isaac tries to enroll Louis on his health plan at work. He soon finds out that he needed to do it no later than Louis' 31st day of life (which was a Sunday, we had visitors, we're tired new parents, and life is crazy). 

2. He writes an appeal letter, which has to be mailed old style. No one will answer a phone or write an email - it is simply not done even though it is 2015. We assume that the insurance will cover him retroactively once the appeal has gone through. Isaac does everything he can to make it happen faster than the maximum 30 days, but there isn't much he can do in the end. 

3. In the meantime, we make plans for alternative coverage JUST IN CASE. We fill out numerous forms on the Washington Health Plan Finder website and are able to look at plans and compare. All 56 are all terrible (not a single one has Louis' pediatrician or the Richland hospital in their network!) but it's better than nothing. We can't enroll him until October 1st - that is the rule lest you try to insure an already sick child. 

4. I call in to ask for the deadline to purchase the Oct. 1 plan. I'm told I have until September 23rd at 5pm. 

5. September 23rd, we get bad news from Isaac's work plan. They won't cover Louis because it was day 32 of his life and that is the rule. At least it's good timing, because we can still purchase alternative coverage, or so we think. I try to purchase said coverage, but suddenly I can't see the available plans. I call to find out what's going on, and the man on the other end says the website isn't working properly, and I should try on Saturday. He assumes they will be manning the phones on Saturday because the website will be down the rest of the week. I ask for assurance that they will let me get Oct. 1 coverage despite missing the deadline. He says it should be fine. 

6. Saturday Sept. 26, I try to log on to the website but it's still down. It claims it will be back on Sunday at 9:00am. The message saying the site is down is dated Sept. 23. 

7. Sunday: Still down. 

8. Monday: I can log on, but I still can't see any plans. This is the point where my memory is blurry because I talked to at least 5 people in 3 days. But I know that on Monday they told me that even though I hadn't been asked to by the website or a person on the phone, I would have to upload our financial info. The person on the other end assures me that it's not my fault and it won't affect my Oct. 1 coverage. He/she (I can't remember) is surprised that I was ever able to see plan options without having uploaded this stuff. That was an error. I upload our info within 5 minutes. I call back to find out why I still can't see plans and the woman tells me to wait. I obsessively check for a status update. At some point in the day, the website is down again. 

9. On Tuesday I talk to two more people. One woman hangs up on me TWICE by accident. Another writes a "ticket" to get someone to take a look at what is going on with my account. I can't remember what else happened on Tuesday but I definitely cried on the phone out of frustration. One woman told me that Louis was eligible for the subsidized health plan. I explained that he was definitely not, which should have been obvious from the eligibility determination and our financial information. Maybe it's her first day?

10. On Wednesday, I call again to find out why our problem APPEARS to have been fixed and yet I still can't see plans. He realizes that I need to upload Louis' birth certificate. Again, I haven't been told this or seen that this needs to be done anywhere on the website. The man on the phone is really kind, but I cry anyway because I'm so tired of dealing with new problems every day. He writes a new "ticket" to get the tech people to sort my account out properly this time. 

11. Thursday morning: website is down again.

12. Thursday afternoon: Huzzah! I can see plans!! I choose a plan! It's terrible. The deductible is in the mid-1000s and after the deductible I pay 50% coinsurance until I reach the yearly out-of-pocket maximum which is a crazy $12 500. I would pay for a more expensive plan (this one is about $111 a month, as I recall) but those ones have no out of pocket maximum for out-of-network hospitals and don't give me anything more for his out-of-network pediatrician care. I need SOME assurance that I won't go bankrupt if Louis has a serious complication. 

13. They force me to pay $25 a month for a terrible dental plan. My baby has no teeth. Obviously. He will be eligible for Isaac's plan again in January, by which time he still will not have any teeth. 

14. I apply, and I can only see that Louis is enrolled in the dental plan. I can't see anything about a health plan. I call and ask what's going on and the woman says her system isn't working. I need to call back right away and see if someone else can help. I call back and talk to a nice fellow who tells me he's going to write another ticket (this is #3!) to see if the tech people can sort this out for me. He asks me what plan I chose, but I only remember the name of the insurer because the plan names are pretty dull.

15. I wait, and REALLY hope that some insurance company will insure Louis for Oct. 1 despite the Washington Health Plan Finder's incompetence. I feel pessimistic after our experience with Isaac's insurance. If he can only be covered for Nov. 1st, we will pay a $400 penalty in our taxes for having an uninsured child for 3 months. 

I might as well mention that this week I sorted through the seven plans offered by my employer because I have to choose one for when I go back to work in December. It took me three hours to make an informed choice, and I'm still not sure I really understand the difference between the plans. It's always a gamble, because you never know what care you'll need ahead of time. Will it be cancer, a car wreck or absolutely nothing? I prefer not to gamble and choose a slightly more expensive plan (but not the most expensive one, because that one would cost me $500 a month). 

I also might add that I am fairly privileged. I have enough free time to deal with this kind of stuff (although not a ton, being a new mom with some work obligations while I'm on maternity leave), I have a lot of education that has prepared me to advocate for myself intelligently and understand complicated language in health plans, and I have enough money to pay the cost of the insurance and the exorbitant out-of-pocket costs. Many Washingtonians in my position are not so educated with so much free time and money. 

I remember fondly how annoyed I got with MSP in British Columbia. How adorable. I long for a time when I knew how much everything would cost me when I went to the doctor or hospital (always zero). Now even if I have the required insurance, I'm never sure what's covered or what it will cost me. I have to check to see if a doctor is out-of-network before I choose one (too late for Louis). I have to know which hospitals I can go to before I go to one. I have to spend hours on the phone trying to sort it out when two separate labs bill my insurance company and my insurance company doesn't pay the bill (that happened last winter).

In short, I think this is a terrible system. I do not want to hear any more politicians claiming that Americans have the best health care in the world. Maybe, but only for a select few. And even those people probably spent hours and hours trying to sort through endless healthcare choices to get the best deal from some insurance company, which is really just an expensive middle man.

Lest we forget….

Nothing changes until we change our electoral system.

Amid all the noise of the phony niqab war, the slicing and dicing of the federal electorate, and the multitudinous outrages the Harper administration has visited on Canada and the Canadian government, we're in danger of forgetting that while this election is critically important, really, we should be thinking about the next one.
Because if we don't want to continue down the path the Harperites have led us, we're going to have to make it impossible for 38% of the electorate to effectively impose one-party rule.
We're going to have to change the way we elect governments.

For the first time ever, I think, the four major parties all have clear proposals on the table:
1.  The Conservatives offer the status quo, and why not? It has served them extremely well recently, and conforms admirably to their vision of a segmented, special-interest, hot-button electorate.
We've now had occasion to try it, and that should be enough incentive to look at the alternatives on offer.
2.  The NDP and Greens are offering Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMPR). Other (admittedly much smaller, like Germany and New Zealand) countries have made that work effectively. There are a number of variants, but essentially the elector votes in a constituency for a member, and then, in consideration of the national popular vote, parties get to appoint members as well. This would serve the Greens (who elect one, but poll north of 5%) well, and would encourage any number of small parties. It would undoubtedly represent the electorate better than any other system.  In Germany the system has a threshold for representation, which largely solves the Israeli problem of very small parties distorting the will of the majority in exchange for becoming part of a majority coalition.
The Greens have no chance to be either government or influential this election, so if you want the Greens to increase their numbers and their influence in the future, paradoxically this time you will have to vote NDP. (!)
3.  The Liberals are offering a system they call Alternative Vote (AV). It's the system most political parties now use to choose their leader: the elector votes for his/her favourite, then provides a second choice, and even a third. The count starts with all the votes; if no one gets 50%, the bottom person drops off and his/her second choices are counted, etc., until one candidate has at least 50%.
That's the system that gave the Liberals Stephane Dion, almost no one's first choice, on the 4th ballot.
The only time it was used in Canadian elections, as far as I am aware, was in 1952, when it led to the first (minority) Social Credit government in BC. The next election, fought in 1953 under the same system, returned a majority Socred government...
...which then promptly changed the electoral system back to the traditional “first-past-the-post” (FPTP) system and ruled until defeated by Dave Barrett's NDP in 1972.
A much more complex variant, actually a combination of AV and MMPR,  nearly became BC's electoral system in 2005, but got only 57.7% in the referendum vote, and required 60%.
AV is a lousy system if you're a fan of any small party, in that it is unlikely to elect candidates of such parties, but at least, unlike FPTP,  it permits the majority to form government. It also has the benefit of legitimizing individual MPs, in that all of them know they represent at least 50% of their electorate. It's even possible this would embolden some of them to think for themselves, or at least represent their constituents.
And it's easy to explain and easy to implement, so it would be an easier sell to the general electorate than MMPR.

Either the NDP/Green alternative or the Liberal one would be a vast improvement over what we have.
So this time, let's make electoral reform job #1, and let's get it done even if we have to vote for a party we might not otherwise support.
Remember ABC: Anyone But Conservative!