Reflections on an historic election

I believe we may just have seen our first election result propelled largely by social media!

In 2005, the first provincial election our MLA, Claire Trevena, ran in and ultimately won, we appointed a “social media” young person, who apparently understood this wave of the future, to run that side of the campaign for our campaign team. She started out enthusiastically enough, but, although I was very involved in the nuts and bolts of that campaign, I didn't notice much effect. I do believe Claire had a Facebook account, and I believe it was updated regularly, although I could be wrong; that could easily have come later.
My imperfect memory recalls the next campaign being much the same.
In fact, it wasn't until the one in 2013 – the one we might have nearly lost for Claire –  that we got a glimpse of the power of Facebook and Twitter, although I certainly didn't recognize it at the time.
And I could be wrong: at the time I thought the whisper campaign that helped re-elect the thoroughly-discredited Clark BCLiberals (and nearly sank Claire in consequence) was the result of a sleaze campaign focused on local radio; now I think Facebook may have played a part.
However, I didn't have a Facebook account at the time, and, apart from our kids and their friends, I didn't know anyone who did.

Fact is, I totally misinterpreted the medium, and it wasn't until this election that I got it.
I'd heard politicians being advised, “You've got to be on Facebook and Twitter, and you have to post regularly. Encourage your constituents to follow you.” That appeared to be happening, but I didn't see much utility apart from being useful for keeping in touch with constituents. Just like the weekly emails our MLA sends out.

So this election was an eye-opener.
I started on Facebook last spring, mostly because I wanted a way to tell the occasional readers of this occasional blog when I had a new post up. Of course I quickly acquired a number of “friends”, initially all relatives, but later adding people I actually know in my daily life. Shortly after, the pre-election campaign started, and then the election. I quickly noticed that some people (notably friend and colleague Mike Hayes, doing his thing for Murray Rankin and the NDP, and former student, friend-of-the-family and fellow Campbell Riverite Jeremy Latham) had become almost full-time posters and commentators. Naturally, I joined them, because we don't all read the same stuff, and because I like spreading my opinions. (And because sometimes the people I know are idiots and need to be told so!) Political commentary, jokes, and ridicule soon flooded my inbox; the flood increased even as the too-lengthy campaign droned on. Knowing how this works, circles on circles, a Canada-wide venn diagram, I wasn't that surprised to find stuff originating from across Canada, in both official languages, from voters of all ages. I also wasn't surprised to see the ridicule and jokes, those most effective non-party messages, repeated over and over.
I don't think I received even one message from any politician or party that hadn't been paid for. In addition, the stuff that had been paid for was obviously advertising, and equally obviously about as effective as paid advertising usually is: no, I'm not tempted by Conservative ads about tax breaks and niqabs or pipeline advertising about oil. Furthermore, I'll bet the people who are, aren't on Facebook! Money wasted.
And then, while I was counting advance poll ballots, the results came in. I already knew, before we exited, that strategic voting was likely to be very hard on the Conservatives, and that, because the Thanksgiving Day advance polls showed a surge in Liberal votes we were probably looking at a Liberal government. It had already occurred to me (as people working in the same zone house as I can attest!) that a Liberal majority was a possibility. However, I was neither prepared for nor particularly disappointed by the size of the majority.
But on reflection, I could have seen it coming: Facebook was on it.


Two perspicacious columns that, as far as I am concerned, got it exactly right:
1. Chantal Hebert  in the Star:
Canada’s progressive majority got its act together on Monday and ushered Stephen Harper out with a vengeance.
In the process they brought their own resolution to the problem of vote splitting on the left of the Conservatives, steamrolling the NDP to hand Justin Trudeau the first Liberal majority victory in 15 years.

And 2. Thomas Homer-Dixon in the Globe:
As soon as the NDP poll numbers turned south in Quebec, the probability that the NDP would win enough seats to form the government dropped precipitously, given the importance of the NDP’s Quebec caucus to the party’s election hopes.
This was a signal to the ABH vote across the country to shift to the Liberals. ABH opinion leaders immediately recognized the implications of the Quebec developments; it took about another two weeks for those implications to be communicated through the ABH crowd and felt strongly in the polls, especially in Ontario. The Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau, helped the shift by performing well on the stump and in debates.