Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Election 2021: the view from here

Signs

People who have read my previous election posts will not be surprised that I want to start by talking about political signs.


The operatives of most political parties apparently believe that signs, preferably lots of signs, influence people to vote for their candidate. So they place them in bursts on the verges beside the highway and at prominent intersections. I believe this practice seriously underestimates the intelligence of voters, so whenever I had input into NDP campaigns I argued that signs should go on lawns, showing who was voting for the candidate and party. And that was (mostly) what we did and continue to do.

One time we even placed a sticker on the candidate sign,”This family votes for...”

Of course most of us don’t know the people who have taken the sign. No matter. Because what the sign actually shows is organization: this party has identified who many of its supporters are and has a crew who will erect their sign for them. That’s a powerful message, one that smart politics doesn’t dilute by placing random signage just anywhere.

The local NDP sign campaign, led by Wayne Youde as usual, didn’t disappoint.

In the past federal elections in Campbell River the NDP sign campaign left all the others behind.  Not so much this time, because the Conservatives had Downey signs all over our neighbourhood, very shortly after the election was called: it’s almost as if they were entirely prepared well in advance!

Of course, they had help: there has been a “Forestry feeds My Family” campaign involving lawn signs and bumper stickers here for some time, recently amplified by the Fairy Creek blockade, especially since it morphed from a campaign to protect one valley into one that calls for the end to most logging on the Island. So it wasn’t much of a surprise to those of us who have been paying attention that when the election was called these issue signs were replaced by Conservative signs.

The other issue that played into Conservative hands here erupted when the Liberal Fisheries and Oceans Minister announced an end to open-net fish pens in the Discovery Islands. That decision was supported by our NDP MP, and it became a plank in Ms Downey’s campaign to point out that MP Blaney was married to Darren Blaney, Chief of the Homalco Band, who was one of the architects of the ban. Campbell River is home to many fish farmers and their families; Campbell River City Council even made a point of being outraged on their behalf.

In fact, they were so outraged that they voted to install an enormous sign at the corner of Hilchey and Dogwood. I’m assuming that Council made this decision well before the election call, and that they had no partisan-political intention beyond supporting forestry and fisheries, but it was installed about two weeks into the campaign, neatly echoing –– probably inadvertently but possibly not, and how were we to know –– Conservative literature.


The very worst verge warrior this time was “Dr Jennifer Grenz” of the Liberals. The signs looked good, easily visible from a distance, but I didn’t see any on lawns. This of course leads to the conclusion that they had far more signs than organization, and her final vote of just over 7,000, compared to nearly 22,000 for Rachel Blaney and just over 20,000 for Shelley Downey, rather proved that point.

The other note I would have is that the Liberal campaign didn’t understand the riding. Yes, it’s good to have an indigenous candidate, and we applaud her PhD accomplishment, but neither of those is a winning attribute in North Island-Powell River; rather, they’re more likely to be hurdles to be overcome. MP Blaney never talks about being married to Chief Blaney for a reason: she has read the room! (and of course commands an organization, so she doesn’t need to).


Jody

On my Twitter feed the GlobeandMail took a good deal of stick for printing three excerpts from Jody Wilson’s new book, curiously released in advance of its original publication date to coincide with the election campaign. Robert Fife particularly took pains to try and find something scandalous to report. In the end, the only new accusation they could find was that she claimed the Prime Minister wanted her to lie, which is pretty thin gruel without any evidence.

David Olive of the Star wrote a particularly insightful piece on the controversy that ended Ms Wilson’s Liberal career. His conclusion: “Wilson-Raybould is an interesting example of bringing narcissism and absolutism together in the lab” As it’s behind a paywall, I’ll include just a few highlights:


  "Wilson-Raybould became obsessed with refusing to overrule the decision by the head of her ministry’s Public Prosecution Service of Canada (PPSC) that SNC did not deserve a DPA.


Wilson-Raybould was, and remains, self-righteous in depicting herself as a lone defender of legal principle, though she has yet to spell out what exactly that principle is.

DPAs are widely used in major economies, including the U.S., the U.K. and much of Europe. Canada added the DPA process to its judicial system in 2018.

A DPA is an out-of-court settlement in which an accused company pays a large fine, cleanses its corporate culture of every last vestige of unethical practices, and submits to a probationary period to ensure it is adhering to the highest standards of corporate governance.

DPAs give prosecutors an additional tool to resolve cases, in an expeditious way that also reduces costs in the judicial system.

As it turned out, SNC quietly reached a negotiated settlement with federal prosecutors in December 2019, with no involvement from the Trudeau government.

SNC pleaded guilty to a single charge of fraud, rather than a potentially more damaging bribery charge. It agreed to pay a sizable $280-million fine, roughly equal to the company’s average annual profits over five years. And it submitted to three years of court-monitored probation.

.....

Wilson-Raybould’s actions were and remain quixotic.

She evinced little interest in SNC or DPAs to understand the larger context of her actions.

Not knowing better, Wilson-Raybould staked her political career on defending a nascent PPSC, created by the Harper government, that is disdained by some top Liberals as a clique of impractical legal purists. They have a point, given the PPSC’s obstinance on the SNC file.

.....

Wilson-Raybould has little to say about the accomplishments of the Trudeau government in which she served. On Trudeau’s Canada Child Benefit, for instance, which has lifted about 300,000 children from poverty.

Wilson-Raybould did, however, trouble to disseminate a lengthy list of her own achievements as justice minister on being demoted from that post.

Wilson-Raybould knows she is an important person. She expected Trudeau to fire advisers in his PMO more seasoned than herself who had communicated with her about SNC. She has equated her treatment by the PMO to the “Saturday Night Massacre,” a shocking episode in Richard Nixon’s manoeuvres to subvert the U.S. Constitution.

Trudeau’s reminder to Wilson-Raybould that “there are differences between pressure and direction” went over her head. (Pressure is guidance; direction is an order.) Wilson-Raybould still doesn’t   grasp that she was insubordinate and was getting away with it."


        I’m not in the footsteps of my Twitter people when I say I think the Globe ultimately did us a service by publishing the excerpts, even though it was pretty clearly a political decision designed to hamper Liberals. I thought the last excerpt, in which Ms Wilson describes her relationships with her cabinet colleagues, particularly enlightening. In it she complains that she frequently told other ministers what to do when confronted with an indigenous file or issue, only to be rebuffed! Imagine!

Clearly she imagines that as an indigenous person she innately had a better grasp of the file than a person whose job it actually was. No wonder she was unhappy, and no wonder she was fired.

I guess we could make excuses if she actually did the job she was assigned. But no, critical files stayed on her desk and didn’t get done. She went through 3(?) Executive Assistants in her brief tenure. As for her handling of the Justice file, she didn’t advance the agenda at all: ask any defence lawyer who has indigenous clients...

Nonetheless, she has her fans in North Island. She apparently has a home on Quadra, although she lives in Vancouver and represented a Vancouver riding (just reclaimed by the Liberals, by the way) She endorsed MP Blaney, and the former BC Minister of Highways, our former MLA, Claire Trevena, lauded her on Facebook for “telling truth to power”.

I don’t have the stomach to read the book, though.


Justus

We’ve been involved in local NDP politics since we lived in Quesnel when I was a beginning teacher. Sometimes very involved. Consequently we always have an NDP sign on the lawn; our neighbours would certainly wonder if we didn’t. So by now everyone knows that when we vote, we vote NDP.

Except that’s not true, and that fact came home dramatically when I discussed the election with my brother on Saltspring, who really does (I believe) always vote NDP. 

I hated our federal campaign largely because Singh was unable to expound on even one plank of the platform without bringing up “Justin Trudeau” and his record of talking a good game but never doing anything. 

(According to Singh; not my opinion at all.)

Anyway, I realized that if I had to vote in Saanich-the-Islands, as my brother does, I’d vote for Elizabeth May to avoid electing the Conservative. I’m very much not a fan of the Greens (although May is a remarkable retail politician, and I do admire that). In other words, I wouldn’t vote Green except to avoid a Conservative.

That’s the penalty we pay in Canada for our “first-past-the-post” electoral system.

I realized that the first time I voted I was actually living in Saanich. The MP was a Progressive Conservative of the old school, called George Chatterton. I don’t remember an NDP candidate; whoever it was would not have been a contender. But the Liberal candidate, the one I voted for, was David Anderson, who not only beat Chatterton, but later became an exemplary Environment Minister in a Liberal government.

I’ve always been proud of that vote, and I’d do it again in a heartbeat. 

Happily, I live in North Island, and the candidate to beat the Conservative has always been an NDPer, for almost as long as I can remember.

  

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

A story

I downloaded our vaccine certificates this morning without issue. After one false start in which I pressed "done" and the certificate promptly vanished into the ether, I downloaded the certificate, took a screen shot, and saved that to my computer desktop. 
Now how to get them on our phones, so they would actually be useful? I researched using Dr Google and sweated for about 2 hours, trying to reverse a very simple process I use all the time, to wit, download photos from the iPhone to the iMac. 
Dr Google had lots of suggestions, many of which I tried. None of them was useful.
After I had tried everything I could think of without any glimmer of success Mike arrived to put the finishing touches on our solar array. I explained the problem, more to look at the possibilities one more time than expecting a result because, as he explained and as we know, he's not really either a computer guy or a Mac guy.
Finally he said, "Why don't you just take a photo?"
Which of course was the exact solution, and really, not to take anything away from Mike's intuition, in retrospect kind of obvious! 

After I sent her the story, Enid said, "You could email it to yourself". Which is an excellent suggestion, but not so useful if you're kind of old school and don't get email on your phone...

Sunday, September 5, 2021

Letter to the Globe

 Dear Sir,

The world is burning up and here on Vancouver Island a significant proportion of our climate activists are obsessing about a relatively-insignificant valley in the hills above Port Renfrew whose chief attributes appear to be that it is close to Victoria, hasn't been logged, and has been given a beguiling name.
They want the organizations that own the timber rights to leave it to them.
That's not going to happen.
As an alternative, I give you the example of West Kootenay's Darkwoods, a larger, much more significant property bought and managed by the Nature Conservancy of Canada.
So here's my suggestion to the preservationists: negotiate a sale of the timber rights with the logging company and the bands on whose territorial claim this is, raise the money, and pass the management to one of the Conservancies. I'm confident the Province would not only agree but help, and judging from election talk, so would any future federal government.
The only losers in this scenario are, as usual, the loggers, who are experiencing the slow death, on Vancouver Island, of a foundational industry. 

published in the Globe, September 9, 2021

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Election 2021

 It’s no secret that I think Rachel Blaney has been a fine MP, so that when I vote in the advance poll...
(Hint: there’s only one political sign on Marina Boulevard. It’s for Rachel Blaney NDP, and it’s in front of our house.)

Not that there’s an actual choice: the runner-up will be the same Conservative as last time and she and her party are electoral poison. 

The Greens ran 3rd last election, with fewer than half the votes of the Con. They’ll be lucky to do as well this outing.

The Liberals, running the same good candidate as in the Trudeau Surprise of 2015 actually lost a significant percentage and ran 4th in 2019, just a few hundred votes behind the Greens. This election’s candidate is only just in the field, and has no riding profile...

And the rest don’t count at all.


In this election, however, my vote for Rachel won’t be a vote for the federal NDP. I’ve never been more disappointed in the party. The details of my disillusionment don’t matter much; suffice it to say that all they’ve given Canada over the last two years is behaviour, seeking headlines by aping Con talking points about a mirage of “scandals” and accusing the Prime Minister of failing to do all manner of things no Prime Minister of Canada could do without provincial agreement: dental care? Provincial. Pharmacare? Provincial. Long Term Care? Provincial. Etc.


Anyway, for me there’s really only one issue this election: reducing Canada’s greenhouse gasses before the planet burns up. (Yes, I’m all for the $10/day childcare proposal, and jobs and the economy and Covid are extremely important, but none except climate change is #1.)


As António Guterres says,

The evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions are choking our planet & placing billions of people in danger. Global heating is affecting every region on Earth, with many of the changes becoming irreversible. We must act decisively now to avert a climate catastrophe.”


In Canada, that means getting a handle on our use and extraction of fossil fuels. 


The Liberals have actually put us on the path to improvement, with and without the assistance of the provinces (the same path Gordon Campbell put BC on 15 years ago, Christy tried to eviscerate, and John Horgan improved on) by putting the entire country on a plan to slowly increase the cost of carbon dioxide and methane emissions, the so-called “carbon tax”.


But the carbon tax doesn’t address the single biggest contributor to Canada’s global warming, which is greenhouse gasses released by bitumen extraction in the tar/oil sands. So Prime Minister Trudeau called the bluff of the other parties on this file: (from Mitchell Beer’s energy mix.com)


Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s promise yesterday to cap oil and gas sector emissions at today’s levels and set five-year targets to reduce them beginning in 2025 amounts to the end of fossil fuel expansion in Canada, the country’s leading climate advocacy network told The Energy Mix Sunday evening.

The Liberals are essentially planning to end fossil fuel expansion,” said Caroline Brouillette, domestic policy manager at Climate Action Network-Canada. “It’s really good to see them finally name that elephant in the Canadian climate policy room.”

The details of the Liberals’ plan will make all the difference, and will be the key to a 1.5°C-compliant future, Brouillette said, stressing that a real phasedown aimed at bringing the country’s emissions to net-zero by 2050 will mean reducing oil and gas production and exports.


And the other parties? What are they proposing? The Conservatives promise to resurrect Northern Gateway, implying increased tar sand activity and more tankers off the BC coast, not to mention an enhanced chance of spills. Their "carbon tax proposal" actually rewards people for using more gasoline and never gets large enough to make a difference.

The NDP, if I read that policy statement correctly, dislike tar sands, dislike pipelines (except for the natural gas one to Kitimat) and thinks Trudeau just talks and never acts and doesn’t deserve to be Prime Minister. Bottom line: they’re in no position to actually do anything, because they cannot form government. Consequently, Mr Singh’s refusal to say he wouldn’t prop up a minority Con government is chilling, to say the least.

The Greens? Irrelevant.


It’s really difficult to be a third party in Canada with our “first past the post” electoral system but other iterations of the federal NDP caucus have managed to manoeuvre that fine line between support for government initiatives we can agree on and criticism of things we cannot. 

Not this one. This one apparently decided early in the last mandate that aggression would lead to electoral success, and the NDP hounds haven’t stopped baying their uncivil bile since. From this vantage point that looks indistinguishable from the CPC and their tactics, which in turn look very Republican. (I give you Charley Angus, on the WE charity file, or the recent comments on Afghanistan, which entirely ignore the fact that we haven’t been involved there since 2014 and that Afghanis have been coming to Canada ever since.)

Not my kind of NDP at all, and I blame the leader. (full disclosure. I was never a fan: https://occasionaljustus.blogspot.com/2018/03/letter-to-my-mp.html)


If the consequence of the NDP attacks are that the Liberals are diminished by the piling-on and the Conservatives take our riding, which is a real possibility, some of us are going to be very pissed indeed.