Last thoughts before e-day

The election is almost upon us, and the “polling” numbers strongly suggest a Conservative win in North Island-Powell River.

I have no trust in the numbers cited, but still... John Duncan won 6 times in our predecessor riding by splitting the opposition.

The only antidote appears to be potential Liberal and NDP voters pooling their votes to defeat the Cons.

Like everyone else, I’m guessing here, but...:

1) We’re not changing the minds of people who are determined to vote Con.

2) People who traditionally vote Liberal are going to vote Liberal. They’re very used to losing so that’s not a disincentive. I’ve never been a Liberal, so cannot explain their unaccountable optimism or fear of “socialism”, but there are people who, for whatever reason, could never bring themselves to vote NDP, so they won’t.

3) That leaves potential NDP voters. We have our core of dyed-in-the-wool socialists, who pine for the days of Tommy Douglas, David Lewis, and Ed Broadbent, but they’re a distinct minority. Most of us have come to terms with the fact that we’re living in the 21^st century, and that the political landscape has changed. We tend towards flexibility.

We could vote Liberal without becoming Liberals if that denied the Cons.

And, in this election, in North Island where the Con candidate is particularly Con and the issues could not be more important, I think that’s worth a shot, even though we all like and admire the NDP candidate and Liberals haven’t won for decades.

This time, I'm voting Liberal

Northern Vancouver Island is in every daily Canadian news source again. At this rate, we’re bound to develop a reputation!

Recently, Campbell River’s City Council, in high dudgeon about drug use on city streets, managed the feat.

This time Aaron Gunn is the Conservative candidate. His incorrect and intemperate comments involving residential schools have resurfaced to bite him and his electoral chances, while exciting the interest of the federal press.

Will his party dump him? Hard to do when he’s clearly in the lead and his comments are only slightly more odious than the past utterances of Mr Poilievre regarding the work habits of First Nations people (uttered before he lost his glasses and adopted contacts!) .

But as I said, the little polling that has been done in North Island-Powell River (338.ca) suggests he has a significant lead, and the seat is described as “CPC Safe”.

That, of course, was before a number of influential First Nations voices started to demand his removal from the ballot. So all is not lost.

I’m literally a life-long NDP member, having been an activist, both provincially and federally since the 1960’s.

But this time, I’m voting Liberal.

Because this time the issue isn’t one of policies, it’s literally existential: whether Canada will continue to exist as a country.

The federal NDP, which has every chance of losing Official Party Status after this election, cannot prevent (only possibly dilute) the threat of an American takeover.

Mr Carney and the Liberals can prevent it, and tackle the many problems of the Canadian economy at the same time.

Fortunately, Jennifer Lash, the Liberal candidate, would not be out of place running for the NDP. She has outstanding credentials as an environmentalist and entrepreneur. She was Senior Advisor to the Trudeau government. It would not be an embarrassment for a died-in-the-wool NDPer to vote for her.

Tanille Johnston is an excellent NDP candidate. In fact, I voted for her when she was seeking the nomination. However, I can no longer see a path for her to be effective as our MP. As part of a rump of fewer than 10 members, lacking a leader (as Mr Singh will almost certainly lose his seat), facing a huge Liberal caucus, the very best we could hope for if we elect her is that she would represent North Island individuals in their dealings with the bureaucracy. Further, I cannot see how she can convince her fellow citizens to join her in defeating Mr Gunn: Liberals are unlikely to abandon their candidate, and Johnston’s already well behind. I don’t see any way for her to make up the significant difference that now exists.

Ms Lash, on the other hand, has the advantage of a good federal campaign and an excellent leader, who most Canadians would choose to confront the Trump regime. If Jennifer Lash can gather enough reluctant NDPers like me to the cause, Mr Gunn is done.

At least, that’s my take and theory.