All the polls agree: the BCLiberals have, since last May's provincial election, taken a huge credibility hit. Their numbers are down significantly, presently more than 10 points behind the BC New Democrats.
And Carole James, leader of those New Democrats, trails her party by about the same margin.
This pretty much re-enforces a feeling many of us have had since before the last election: Carole James is not destined to become the first elected female premier of BC.
It's not really her fault that she lacks the necessary charisma. She has been an effective, credible, and extremely hard-working party leader, who has remade a party that was down, at one point, to its last two MLAs. She has run two competent, if pedestrian, election campaigns. And her stump speeches have improved enormously; the last time she was in Campbell River I even saw her strike some sparks.
If she were a man she'd probably be premier by now. (There has been only one elected female Premier in the history of Canada, Liberal Catherine Callbeck of PEI, and she lasted less than one term. It's obviously one very tough sell.)
Unfortunately (fortunately!) the next election is four years away, and that's enough time for any party to re-invent itself. I predict the Liberals will do just that, and we'd better think about it ourselves as well, or we're pretty much guaranteed to lose another one.
Here's a scenario:
1 Within a year of the conclusion of the Olympics Premier Campbell discovers some pressing reason for why he cannot complete his mandate. (Would you believe a Senate appointment by Prime Minister Ignatieff?)
2 In the subsequent race all the right-wing male contenders for the job are trumped when Carole Taylor is persuaded to come out of retirement and wins in a walk. The press, as usual, rolls over for her. (That's charisma!)
3 By the time the next election rolls around - in May of 2013 - the public sector unions will be smarting from the effects of a 4 year wage freeze. Will the public sector unions be prepared to play footsie with Carole Taylor again? Probably not. Will the public be in the mood for a salary-restoring contract? Probably not. Will the economy have recovered? Probably not. Would a Carole James-led NDParty win against a Carole Taylor-led BCLiberal Party in such a climate? Probably not.
4 Et voila! Premier Carole Taylor, first elected female Premier of BC.
Monday, September 7, 2009
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