Takeaway from Victoria

Congratulations to the Victoria NDP campaign team, who got the vote out and their man elected.

But it was close: 37.2% NDP vs 34.3% for the Greens. Denise Savoie won Victoria handily for the NDP in the last three elections, with over 50% of the popular vote last time, so what can the results mean?

One cannot fault the candidate, distinguished lawyer Murray Rankin, whose record speaks for itself. Besides, he missed Denise Savoie's popular vote when she won the first time in 2006, by only 1.2%. His stand on the sewage plant may have cost him some votes, but his position was the only one that was principled. (And he was and is right: Victoria cannot continue to pump essentially untreated sewage into the Straits of Juan de Fuca; this issue should have been dealt with years ago, and the fact that it is more expensive now should be irrelevant. All the rest of us on Vancouver Island dealt with this issue years ago. I don't necessarily expect more from Liberals and Conservatives, but the Greens ought to be embarrassed by their pandering non-position.)

I think we should pay attention to the runner-up, Donald Galloway, another lawyer with impeccable law credentials. With him as the candidate the Greens in Victoria went from 11.6% (highest popular vote percentage to that point) in 2011 to 34.3%, a gain of 22.7%. Not too shabby.

Also, I suspect, entirely unrepeatable.

I have no particular knowledge here, but I think we've seen this picture before: in Saanich, during the last federal election, when Elizabeth May's team beat Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn by some 9%.

There is no doubt the "May Team" is a formidable political organization. There is also no doubt that it is financed by and made up of enthusiasts from all the Victoria-area constituencies. Thanks to their work Elizabeth May has become a political power on the south Island. (I would have voted for her myself had I been living in Saanich during the last election. Almost anything is preferable to Gary Lunn, and Elizabeth May is a huge improvement!)

There is also no doubt that Donald Galloway was able to call on the May Team and on Elizabeth May and that they delivered big-time. The reason they didn't win is that they were up against the lower-Island NDP: 7 provincial constituencies, only two of which are not currently represented by NDP MLAs, all of which have strong NDP organizations.

So why won't there be a repeat in the next federal election? That's because the team is Elizabeth's, and the Conservatives will continue to throw everything (including dirty tricks) they can at her to try to take the seat back. She'll need the bodies and the money in her fight; there won't be enough left for other candidates in the area. Prediction: next federal election watch the Green vote in Victoria go back to traditional numbers; if Justin Trudeau becomes Liberal leader, watch the Liberal vote increase dramatically.

On the other hand, I believe there is an immediate implication for next May's provincial election. As I've said before, I don't think Green Party provincial leader Jane Sterk has a chance in Victoria-Beacon Hill against Carole James. Undoubtedly some Greens will gravitate there, but I expect the bulk of May's troops will probably move to support professor Andrew Weaver in OakBay-Gordon Head. With (in my opinion) a relatively weak incumbent and a demonstrably weak NDP candidate, he actually has an excellent chance of being the first Green elected to the BC Legislature, provided he finds an organization to do the work on the ground.

And it wouldn't be a bad thing for an NDP goverment to have a Green in the Leg.